Spread: SS Lazio (-3.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold SS Lazio (56%) · SS Lazio at 97¢ · $33K held · ended Oct 27

SS Lazio97¢US Sassuolo Calcio3¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SS Lazio

Consensus Traders

SS Lazio 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.3K

Combined PnL

$2.8K

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 97¢

+101% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSS Lazio at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SS Lazio

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

SS Lazio97%

US Sassuolo Calcio3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SS Lazio5 traders

Total Value$28.9K

Total Shares45,195

Combined PnL+$2.9K

US Sassuolo Calcio4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,439

Combined PnL-$87.31

SS Lazio — 56%US Sassuolo Calcio — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065	SS Lazioavg 55.2¢	$16.3K	$16.3K	+$19.88	63% 226-130 (356)
GO GoalLineGhost	SS Lazioavg 35.7¢	$5.2K	$12.3K	+$2.9K	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 63.9¢	$4.2K	$2.9K	$-1.3K	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
└ SS Lazio leg	SS Lazioavg 10.1¢	$244.32	$2.1K	+$1.9K
└ US Sassuolo Calcio leg	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 63.9¢	$3.9K	$781.68	$-3.1K
RU Ruler11CTR	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 67¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$1	51% 278-265 (543)
AN Anon455	SS Lazioavg 36.3¢	$181.49	$181.99	+$0.5	56% 2573-2023 (4596)
poshposh	SS Lazioavg 34.2¢	$114.86	$112.7	-$2.15	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
HRTradingARB<$100	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 45.5¢	$602.45	$68.04	-$534.4	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
└ US Sassuolo Calcio leg	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 45.5¢	$573.22	$37.77	-$535.45
└ SS Lazio leg	SS Lazioavg 93.7¢	$29.23	$30.27	+$1.04
LU LuckyLoo<$100	SS Lazioavg 3.3¢	$12.09	$48.99	+$36.9	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
SN SnakeBallCTR	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 44.8¢	$133.28	$44.77	-$88.51	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
RO Rocky31CTR<$100	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 64.6¢	$18.28	$18.01	-$0.27	73% 1437-531 (1968)
RN1CTR<$100	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 3.7¢	$3.97	$6.43	+$2.47	54% 55353-47409 (102762)

0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065

SS Lazio

Invested

$16,272.12

Value

$16.3K

PnL

+$19.88

Record

63%

226-130 (356)

GoalLineGhost

SS Lazio

Invested

$5,196.42

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

US Sassuolo Calcio

Invested

$4,159.45

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

Both legs:

SS Lazio$244.3210.1¢+$1.9K

US Sassuolo Calcio$3,915.1363.9¢$-3.1K

Ruler11CTR

US Sassuolo Calcio

Invested

$1,343.86

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$1

Record

51%

278-265 (543)

Anon455

SS Lazio

Invested

$181.49

Value

$181.99

PnL

+$0.5

Record

56%

2573-2023 (4596)

poshposh

SS Lazio

Invested

$114.86

Value

$112.7

PnL

-$2.15

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

HRTradingARB<$100

US Sassuolo Calcio

Invested

$602.45

Value

$68.04

PnL

-$534.4

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

Both legs:

US Sassuolo Calcio$573.2245.5¢-$535.45

SS Lazio$29.2393.7¢+$1.04

LuckyLoo<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

$12.09

Value

$48.99

PnL

+$36.9

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

SnakeBallCTR

US Sassuolo Calcio

Invested

$133.28

Value

$44.77

PnL

-$88.51

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

Rocky31CTR<$100

US Sassuolo Calcio

Invested

$18.28

Value

$18.01

PnL

-$0.27

Record

73%

1437-531 (1968)

RN1CTR<$100

US Sassuolo Calcio

Invested

$3.97

Value

$6.43

PnL

+$2.47

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

Research grade

NeutralSS Lazio at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

SS Lazio

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SS Lazio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.