Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold SS Lazio (58%) · SS Lazio at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 27

SS Lazio>99¢US Sassuolo Calcio<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SS Lazio

Consensus Traders

SS Lazio 58%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 99.5¢

+20% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSS Lazio at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SS Lazio

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

SS Lazio99%

US Sassuolo Calcio1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SS Lazio7 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares7,737

Combined PnL+$1.1K

US Sassuolo Calcio5 traders

Total Value$207.96

Total Shares450

Combined PnL+$19.25

SS Lazio — 58%US Sassuolo Calcio — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	SS Lazioavg 84.5¢	$5.5K	$6.5K	+$982.25	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
RN1	SS Lazioavg 86¢	$531.95	$615.15	+$83.19	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
PA pauleta23	SS Lazioavg 67¢	$200.8	$189.2	-$11.6	67% 23032-11433 (34465)
LU LuckyLooCTR	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 38.1¢	$145.76	$158.81	+$13.05	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
AN Anon455	SS Lazioavg 58¢	$145	$151.25	+$6.25	56% 2573-2023 (4596)
poshposhCTR<$100	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 31.1¢	$30.3	$35.04	+$4.74	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
HRTradingCTR<$100	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 55.3¢	$5.46	$10.38	+$4.92	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
RO Rocky31<$100	SS Lazioavg 91¢	$10	$9.4	-$0.6	73% 1437-531 (1968)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	SS Lazioavg 53¢	$7.95	$8.7	+$0.75	59% 29934-20654 (50588)
RA rabbitfoot1<$100	SS Lazioavg 58¢	$5	$4.96	-$0.04	53% 1100-972 (2072)
US User7429CTR<$100	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 20¢	$3.6	$3.51	-$0.09	55% 8036-6505 (14541)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	US Sassuolo Calcioavg 20¢	$3.59	$0.22	-$3.37	60% 3221-2159 (5380)

GoalLineGhost

SS Lazio

Invested

$5,531.6

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$982.25

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

RN1

SS Lazio

Invested

$531.95

Value

$615.15

PnL

+$83.19

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

pauleta23

SS Lazio

Invested

$200.8

Value

$189.2

PnL

-$11.6

Record

67%

23032-11433 (34465)

LuckyLooCTR

US Sassuolo Calcio

Invested

$145.76

Value

$158.81

PnL

+$13.05

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

Anon455

SS Lazio

Invested

$145

Value

$151.25

PnL

+$6.25

Record

56%

2573-2023 (4596)

poshposhCTR<$100

US Sassuolo Calcio

Invested

$30.3

Value

$35.04

PnL

+$4.74

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

HRTradingCTR<$100

US Sassuolo Calcio

Invested

$5.46

Value

$10.38

PnL

+$4.92

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

Rocky31<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

$10

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

73%

1437-531 (1968)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

$7.95

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$0.75

Record

59%

29934-20654 (50588)

rabbitfoot1<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

1100-972 (2072)

User7429CTR<$100

US Sassuolo Calcio

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$0.09

Record

55%

8036-6505 (14541)

shiifooCTR<$100

US Sassuolo Calcio

Invested

$3.59

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$3.37

Record

60%

3221-2159 (5380)

Research grade

NeutralSS Lazio at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

SS Lazio

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SS Lazio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.