Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-10-27?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 73¢ · $170 held · ends Oct 27

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$170.09

Combined PnL

$1.17

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 73¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$127.16

Total Shares172

Combined PnL+$0.37

Yes1 trader

Total Value$42.93

Total Shares159

Combined PnL+$0.79

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
timebrotime<$100	Noavg 73¢	$100	$100	+$0	67% 885-432 (1317)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$42.93	$42.93	+$0.79	58% 27868-20501 (48369)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 71¢	$17.42	$17.82	+$0.31	53% 15682-13855 (29537)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 72¢	$9.22	$9.34	+$0.06	53% 2036-1804 (3840)

timebrotime<$100

Invested

$100

Value

$100

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

885-432 (1317)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.93

Value

$42.93

PnL

+$0.79

Record

58%

27868-20501 (48369)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$17.42

Value

$17.82

PnL

+$0.31

Record

53%

15682-13855 (29537)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$9.22

Value

$9.34

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

2036-1804 (3840)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.