Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: 1st Half O/U 2.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$1.6K
$1.5K
6.1¢ → 0.1¢
-99% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SY SyrrokCTR | Underavg 0.9¢ | $15.68 | $1.5K | +$1.5K | 61% 1777-1116 (2893) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 84¢ | $82.32 | $81.34 | -$0.98 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 1¢ | $0.31 | $25.79 | +$25.48 | 60% 9116-6042 (15158) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $20.68 | $20.68 | +$0 | 50% 6745-6755 (13500) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $3.8 | $10 | +$6.2 | 76% 3880-1236 (5116) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $23.55 | $0.04 | -$23.51 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
Invested
$15.68
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
61%
1777-1116 (2893)
Invested
$82.32
Value
$81.34
PnL
-$0.98
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.31
Value
$25.79
PnL
+$25.48
Record
60%
9116-6042 (15158)
Invested
$20.68
Value
$20.68
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
6745-6755 (13500)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$6.2
Record
76%
3880-1236 (5116)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$23.55
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$23.51
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.