Exact Score: US Sassuolo Calcio 2 - 3 SS Lazio?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$1.7K
$106.63
92.8¢ → 99.6¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 93¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$107.16 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $80.18 | $80.27 | +$0.09 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $30.84 | $30.87 | +$0.03 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.06 | $0.41 | -$0.65 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
RN1Invested
$1,507.94
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$107.16
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$80.18
Value
$80.27
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
Invested
$30.84
Value
$30.87
PnL
+$0.03
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$1.06
Value
$0.41
PnL
-$0.65
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.