Exact Score: US Sassuolo Calcio 1 - 3 SS Lazio?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$1.2K
$2.56
94.5¢ → 94.7¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.4¢ | $569 | $570.86 | +$1.86 | 50% 32583-32122 (64705) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 94.6¢ | $506.07 | $506.73 | +$0.66 | 50% 11942-12092 (24034) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $80.45 | $80.49 | +$0.05 | 58% 27870-20508 (48378) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.