Exact Score: US Sassuolo Calcio 0 - 0 SS Lazio?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$5.0K
$54.88
94.9¢ → 100¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.9¢ | $4.0K | $4.2K | +$24.06 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 95¢ | $525.73 | $553.12 | +$27.39 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 95¢ | $102.6 | $102.6 | -$0.54 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $76 | $79.96 | +$3.96 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
 AgricultureSecretaryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $23.11 | $23.11 | +$0 | 83% 3767-770 (4537) |
Invested
$3,989.23
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$24.06
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
Invested
$525.73
Value
$553.12
PnL
+$27.39
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$102.6
Value
$102.6
PnL
-$0.54
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
RN1<$100Invested
$76
Value
$79.96
PnL
+$3.96
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$30
Value
$30
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR<$100Invested
$23.11
Value
$23.11
PnL
+$0
Record
83%
3767-770 (4537)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.