Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?

13 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 97¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 27

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 65%

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

-$0

Smart Money Entry

93.4¢ → 97.2¢

+4% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 20 top traders (65%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares12,532

Combined PnL+$30.73

Yes7 traders

Total Value$330.81

Total Shares1,509

Combined PnL-$30.73

No — 65%Yes — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 95.5¢	$7.3K	$7.4K	+$42.06	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 96.7¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$20.23	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
oieshfn345	Noavg 89.2¢	$969.97	$986.48	+$16.51	58% 1600-1180 (2780)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 96.9¢	$660.29	$664.63	+$4.34	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 74¢	$539	$535	-$4	51% 1209-1141 (2350)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97¢	$261.39	$261.86	+$0.47	50% 32601-32144 (64745)
RO Rocky31	Noavg 93.5¢	$224.4	$217.2	-$7.2	73% 1437-531 (1968)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$205.96	$209.77	+$3.81	53% 15683-13856 (29539)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 72¢	$359.99	$140.33	+$7.1	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 95.2¢	$127.76	$128.02	+$0.26	52% 13489-12341 (25830)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 73¢	$127.05	$127.63	+$0.58	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$67.23	$92.44	+$25.21	57% 510-386 (896)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 84¢	$51.28	$44.26	-$7.02	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$40.01	$37.95	-$2.06	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
0010001000001100CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$17.3	$18.3	+$1	65% 1334-720 (2054)
AD adururuCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$33.61	$3.68	-$29.93	54% 349-299 (648)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.7	$3.63	-$0.08	54% 6002-5094 (11096)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.7¢	$30.91	$3.6	-$27.3	53% 300-265 (565)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$6.69	$2.04	-$3.5	53% 2036-1804 (3840)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1	$0.98	-$0.02	62% 13579-8414 (21993)

RN1

Invested

$7,310.79

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$42.06

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,868.41

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$20.23

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

oieshfn345

Invested

$969.97

Value

$986.48

PnL

+$16.51

Record

58%

1600-1180 (2780)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$660.29

Value

$664.63

PnL

+$4.34

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$539

Value

$535

PnL

-$4

Record

51%

1209-1141 (2350)

SnakeBall

Invested

$261.39

Value

$261.86

PnL

+$0.47

Record

50%

32601-32144 (64745)

Rocky31

Invested

$224.4

Value

$217.2

PnL

-$7.2

Record

73%

1437-531 (1968)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$205.96

Value

$209.77

PnL

+$3.81

Record

53%

15683-13856 (29539)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$359.99

Value

$140.33

PnL

+$7.1

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$127.76

Value

$128.02

PnL

+$0.26

Record

52%

13489-12341 (25830)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$127.05

Value

$127.63

PnL

+$0.58

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.23

Value

$92.44

PnL

+$25.21

Record

57%

510-386 (896)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$51.28

Value

$44.26

PnL

-$7.02

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$40.01

Value

$37.95

PnL

-$2.06

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

0010001000001100CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.3

Value

$18.3

PnL

+$1

Record

65%

1334-720 (2054)

adururuCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.61

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$29.93

Record

54%

349-299 (648)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.63

PnL

-$0.08

Record

54%

6002-5094 (11096)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.91

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$27.3

Record

53%

300-265 (565)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.69

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$3.5

Record

53%

2036-1804 (3840)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

62%

13579-8414 (21993)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 20 top traders (65%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.