US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Score
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 61¢ · $271 held · ends Oct 27
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Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 33%
$270.88
$7.72
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Abdihakeem | Yesavg 61¢ | $224.48 | $135.81 | -$1.12 | 50% 77-78 (155) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.5¢ | $92.97 | $99.44 | +$7.74 | 58% 27870-20508 (48378) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.8¢ | $34.54 | $35.63 | +$1.1 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.