Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-11-02?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 58¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$4.5K
-$0
58¢ → 58¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HY hydra1248CTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$0 | — 6-5 (11) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Noavg 58¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$0 | 53% 5653-4991 (10644) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 58¢ | $255.78 | $255.78 | +$0 | 73% 6739-2446 (9185) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $76.88 | $76.88 | +$0 | 53% 16036-14210 (30246) |
Invested
$2,169.59
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$0
Record
—
6-5 (11)
Invested
$2,031.88
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5653-4991 (10644)
Invested
$255.78
Value
$255.78
PnL
+$0
Record
73%
6739-2446 (9185)
Invested
$76.88
Value
$76.88
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
16036-14210 (30246)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.