Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (97%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
AS Roma vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 0.5
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 2.8¢ · $86 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 100%
$86.45
-$0.06
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 97%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.3¢ | $41.96 | $47.47 | -$4.53 | 49% 14983-15895 (30878) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.2¢ | $12.15 | $14.26 | +$2.11 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 2.5¢ | $397.71 | $10.54 | +$0.74 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.3¢ | $4.41 | $4.94 | +$0.53 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 2.3¢ | $3.45 | $3.9 | +$0.45 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Underavg 2.2¢ | $3.27 | $3.89 | +$0.63 | 55% 1426-1175 (2601) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.7¢ | $1.16 | $1.12 | -$0.04 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.2¢ | $0.28 | $0.33 | +$0.05 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
Invested
$41.96
Value
$47.47
PnL
-$4.53
Record
49%
14983-15895 (30878)
Invested
$12.15
Value
$14.26
PnL
+$2.11
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$397.71
Value
$10.54
PnL
+$0.74
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$4.41
Value
$4.94
PnL
+$0.53
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$3.9
PnL
+$0.45
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
Invested
$3.27
Value
$3.89
PnL
+$0.63
Record
55%
1426-1175 (2601)
Invested
$1.16
Value
$1.12
PnL
-$0.04
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$0.28
Value
$0.33
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.