AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 5.5
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 93¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
$61.03
85¢ → 93¢
+9% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graziek99 | Underavg 95.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$59.32 | 88% 361-49 (410) |
 RN1 | Underavg 69.4¢ | $318.63 | $420.95 | +$102.32 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 66.1¢ | $399.9 | $399.41 | -$0.49 | 59% 44322-30683 (75005) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 7.6¢ | $324.7 | $292.04 | -$32.66 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 86.7¢ | $157.79 | $171.94 | +$14.15 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 7.6¢ | $166.92 | $120.1 | -$46.82 | |
FO foooool | Underavg 74.7¢ | $84.18 | $107.2 | +$23.02 | 50% 10448-10312 (20760) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 93¢ | $19.99 | $20.46 | +$0.46 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $12.55 | $11.23 | -$1.6 | 56% 2575-2024 (4599) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Underavg 88¢ | $13.46 | $10.1 | -$3.37 | 53% 2036-1804 (3840) |
Invested
$1,762.73
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$59.32
Record
88%
361-49 (410)
RN1Invested
$318.63
Value
$420.95
PnL
+$102.32
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
Invested
$399.9
Value
$399.41
PnL
-$0.49
Record
59%
44322-30683 (75005)
Invested
$324.7
Value
$292.04
PnL
-$32.66
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.18
Value
$107.2
PnL
+$23.02
Record
50%
10448-10312 (20760)
Invested
$19.99
Value
$20.46
PnL
+$0.46
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
Invested
$12.55
Value
$11.23
PnL
-$1.6
Record
56%
2575-2024 (4599)
Invested
$13.46
Value
$10.1
PnL
-$3.37
Record
53%
2036-1804 (3840)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.