AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 64¢ · $103 held · ends Oct 27

Over36¢Under64¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$102.73

Combined PnL

$0.47

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$79.43

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$0.33

Over2 traders

Total Value$23.29

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$0.14

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 63¢	$69.93	$69.93	+$0.56	58% 27868-20501 (48369)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$21.85	$21.85	+$0	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Underavg 65¢	$9.81	$9.5	-$0.23	53% 2036-1804 (3840)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$1.32	$1.44	+$0.14	54% 2551-2184 (4735)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$69.93

Value

$69.93

PnL

+$0.56

Record

58%

27868-20501 (48369)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.85

Value

$21.85

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Under

Invested

$9.81

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.23

Record

53%

2036-1804 (3840)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$0.14

Record

54%

2551-2184 (4735)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.