AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 55¢ · $582 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$582.04
$2.12
56¢ → 54.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 42.4¢ | $220.62 | $223.71 | +$3.09 | 59% 44247-30614 (74861) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 54.1¢ | $120.27 | $121.14 | +$0.87 | 50% 24101-23732 (47833) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 58¢ | $116 | $114 | -$3 | 56% 6840-5478 (12318) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $69.85 | $72.39 | +$2.54 | 58% 27869-20504 (48373) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $44.67 | $44.13 | -$1.55 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $6.67 | $6.67 | +$0.17 | 54% 2558-2193 (4751) |
Invested
$220.62
Value
$223.71
PnL
+$3.09
Record
59%
44247-30614 (74861)
Invested
$120.27
Value
$121.14
PnL
+$0.87
Record
50%
24101-23732 (47833)
0xheavy888Invested
$116
Value
$114
PnL
-$3
Record
56%
6840-5478 (12318)
Invested
$69.85
Value
$72.39
PnL
+$2.54
Record
58%
27869-20504 (48373)
Invested
$44.67
Value
$44.13
PnL
-$1.55
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.67
Value
$6.67
PnL
+$0.17
Record
54%
2558-2193 (4751)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.