AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 77¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 17%
$4.4K
$30.19
Research grade
NeutralOver at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 77.3¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$29.07 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 22.7¢ | $859.63 | $889.51 | +$29.88 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 21.2¢ | $191.64 | $212.51 | +$20.87 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 23¢ | $179.92 | $183.83 | +$3.91 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Underavg 22.1¢ | $97.72 | $103.87 | +$6.15 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $67.86 | $66.32 | -$1.54 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
Invested
$2,949.67
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$29.07
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$859.63
Value
$889.51
PnL
+$29.88
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$191.64
Value
$212.51
PnL
+$20.87
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$179.92
Value
$183.83
PnL
+$3.91
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$97.72
Value
$103.87
PnL
+$6.15
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$67.86
Value
$66.32
PnL
-$1.54
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.