AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 0.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 95¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 100%
$12.3K
-$192.38
95.5¢ → 94.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Aleksey1993 | Overavg 95.3¢ | $10.0K | $9.9K | -$140.18 | 76% 149-47 (196) |
 noosh3 | Overavg 96¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$52.08 | 52% 238-219 (457) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Overavg 95¢ | $10.74 | $10.62 | -$0.11 | 53% 2036-1804 (3840) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.