AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: AS Roma O/U 3.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 87¢ · $404 held · ended Oct 27

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$403.52

Combined PnL

-$87.84

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 86.5¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$329.5

Total Shares590

Combined PnL-$142.61

Over1 trader

Total Value$74.02

Total Shares148

Combined PnL+$54.77

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 80¢	$406.27	$263.85	-$142.42	59% 44322-30683 (75005)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$19.25	$74.02	+$54.77	50% 32622-32156 (64778)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 91¢	$27.46	$27.61	+$0.15	54% 2639-2268 (4907)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 55.3¢	$25.94	$23.47	-$2.47	50% 11976-12131 (24107)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 81¢	$23.63	$14.58	+$2.13	57% 12947-9854 (22801)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$406.27

Value

$263.85

PnL

-$142.42

Record

59%

44322-30683 (75005)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.25

Value

$74.02

PnL

+$54.77

Record

50%

32622-32156 (64778)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$27.46

Value

$27.61

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$25.94

Value

$23.47

PnL

-$2.47

Record

50%

11976-12131 (24107)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$23.63

Value

$14.58

PnL

+$2.13

Record

57%

12947-9854 (22801)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.