Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold AS Roma, while the market favors Cagliari Calcio (91%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: AS Roma (-3.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold AS Roma (67%) · AS Roma at 9.5¢ · $550 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
AS Roma
3
AS Roma 67%
$549.99
-$16.87
12¢ → 9.5¢
-21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidAS Roma at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Cagliari Calcio 91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873CTR | AS Romaavg 12¢ | $469.9 | $450.32 | -$19.58 | 37% 113-189 (302) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Cagliari Calcioavg 88¢ | $96.36 | $99.1 | +$2.74 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | AS Romaavg 12¢ | $0.6 | $0.58 | -$0.02 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.