Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Cagliari Calcio (50%) · Cagliari Calcio at 79¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27

AS Roma22¢Cagliari Calcio78¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cagliari Calcio

Consensus Traders

Cagliari Calcio 50%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$35.47

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 78.5¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCagliari Calcio at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cagliari Calcio

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

AS Roma22%

Cagliari Calcio79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cagliari Calcio3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,526

Combined PnL+$150.22

AS Roma3 traders

Total Value$736.03

Total Shares3,408

Combined PnL-$185.69

Cagliari Calcio — 50%AS Roma — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Cagliari Calcioavg 72.9¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$148.59	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	AS Romaavg 27¢	$901.59	$716.65	-$184.93	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
0xheavy888	Cagliari Calcioavg 73¢	$146	$148	+$2	56% 6844-5479 (12323)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Cagliari Calcioavg 73¢	$54.02	$53.65	-$0.37	58% 27870-20510 (48380)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	AS Romaavg 27¢	$15.28	$14.7	-$0.58	57% 12917-9835 (22752)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	AS Romaavg 27¢	$4.86	$4.68	-$0.18	50% 6745-6755 (13500)

UpTheBlues

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$2,371.32

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$148.59

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

GoalLineGhostCTR

AS Roma

Invested

$901.59

Value

$716.65

PnL

-$184.93

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

0xheavy888

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$146

Value

$148

PnL

+$2

Record

56%

6844-5479 (12323)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$54.02

Value

$53.65

PnL

-$0.37

Record

58%

27870-20510 (48380)

ghorrockCTR<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$15.28

Value

$14.7

PnL

-$0.58

Record

57%

12917-9835 (22752)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

6745-6755 (13500)

Research grade

NeutralCagliari Calcio at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cagliari Calcio

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cagliari Calcio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.