AS Roma leading at halftime?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$69.99

Smart Money Entry

76.7¢ → 100¢

+30% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,277

Combined PnL+$73.73

No3 traders

Total Value$126.73

Total Shares1,744

Combined PnL-$3.74

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 90.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$2.43	54% 55386-47442 (102828)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 74.6¢	$1.2K	$880.41	-$271.37	50% 24148-23764 (47912)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 47¢	$352.5	$697.5	+$345	58% 40458-29241 (69699)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$75.73	$75.73	+$0	49% 18442-18863 (37305)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 7.8¢	$48.27	$43.92	-$4.35	59% 44322-30683 (75005)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$28.78	$31.12	+$2.34	60% 9138-6084 (15222)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 44.9¢	$6.47	$7.08	+$0.61	58% 27884-20523 (48407)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$5.82	$6	+$0.18	54% 2639-2268 (4907)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$1,554.46

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$2.43

Record

54%

55386-47442 (102828)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,151.78

Value

$880.41

PnL

-$271.37

Record

50%

24148-23764 (47912)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$352.5

Value

$697.5

PnL

+$345

Record

58%

40458-29241 (69699)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$75.73

Value

$75.73

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

18442-18863 (37305)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$48.27

Value

$43.92

PnL

-$4.35

Record

59%

44322-30683 (75005)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.78

Value

$31.12

PnL

+$2.34

Record

60%

9138-6084 (15222)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$6.47

Value

$7.08

PnL

+$0.61

Record

58%

27884-20523 (48407)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.82

Value

PnL

+$0.18

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.