AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: 1st Half O/U 1.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 67¢ · $662 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 100%
$662.07
$19.65
62.5¢ → 66.5¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Underavg 63¢ | $227.7 | $233.12 | +$5.42 | 47% 2368-2640 (5008) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 62¢ | $168.06 | $174.8 | +$6.74 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 61¢ | $122.43 | $126.94 | +$4.51 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 63¢ | $108.74 | $111.33 | +$2.59 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $13.62 | $13.95 | +$0.32 | 53% 5473-4820 (10293) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $1.86 | $1.94 | +$0.07 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
Invested
$227.7
Value
$233.12
PnL
+$5.42
Record
47%
2368-2640 (5008)
Invested
$168.06
Value
$174.8
PnL
+$6.74
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$122.43
Value
$126.94
PnL
+$4.51
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
VeryLucky888Invested
$108.74
Value
$111.33
PnL
+$2.59
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$13.62
Value
$13.95
PnL
+$0.32
Record
53%
5473-4820 (10293)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.86
Value
$1.94
PnL
+$0.07
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.