Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 17¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$9.67

Smart Money Entry

18.8¢ → 16.5¢

-12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$730.86

Total Shares3,951

Combined PnL-$9.85

No3 traders

Total Value$485.7

Total Shares596

Combined PnL+$0.18

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873CTR	Yesavg 19¢	$656.57	$639.29	-$17.28	37% 113-189 (302)
CA Cannae	Noavg 81¢	$324.32	$326.33	+$2	53% 15682-13855 (29537)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 83¢	$116.2	$114.1	-$2.1	59% 44240-30609 (74849)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$84.15	$91.58	+$7.42	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 81¢	$45	$45.27	+$0.28	63% 1045-602 (1647)

0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873CTR

Yes

Invested

$656.57

Value

$639.29

PnL

-$17.28

Record

37%

113-189 (302)

Cannae

Invested

$324.32

Value

$326.33

PnL

+$2

Record

53%

15682-13855 (29537)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$116.2

Value

$114.1

PnL

-$2.1

Record

59%

44240-30609 (74849)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.15

Value

$91.58

PnL

+$7.42

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$45.27

PnL

+$0.28

Record

63%

1045-602 (1647)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.2%

16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$448.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

548.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.