Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 41¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.8K
-$138.1
45.3¢ → 40.5¢
-11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeCTR | Yesavg 46.1¢ | $1.1K | $995.33 | -$112.59 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 59.4¢ | $432.11 | $425.88 | -$6.23 | 56% 6844-5479 (12323) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 40.5¢ | $200.55 | $200.33 | -$0.22 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Yesavg 46.2¢ | $137.77 | $122.18 | -$20.06 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 58.4¢ | $80.53 | $77.22 | +$0.99 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
Invested
$1,132.5
Value
$995.33
PnL
-$112.59
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
0xheavy888Invested
$432.11
Value
$425.88
PnL
-$6.23
Record
56%
6844-5479 (12323)
Invested
$200.55
Value
$200.33
PnL
-$0.22
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$137.77
Value
$122.18
PnL
-$20.06
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$80.53
Value
$77.22
PnL
+$0.99
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.