Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-10-28?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 61¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 28

Yes40¢No60¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$84.03

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 60.5¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares8,634

Combined PnL+$43.84

No9 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares7,057

Combined PnL+$40.19

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP sport-intelligenceCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$42.86	36% 100-174 (274)
RN1	Noavg 60.1¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$44.62	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
CA Cannae	Noavg 64.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$3.14	53% 15742-13910 (29652)
us391	Noavg 65¢	$833.99	$833.99	-$0	51% 1646-1580 (3226)
TO torta.tech	Noavg 60¢	$444.6	$437.19	-$7.41	63% 7978-4770 (12748)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 60.7¢	$119.93	$119.33	-$0.6	52% 13563-12405 (25968)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.7¢	$84.27	$85.35	+$1.08
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.4¢	$35.66	$33.98	-$1.68
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 61¢	$95.65	$96.43	+$0.78	62% 13614-8455 (22069)
oieshfn345<$100	Noavg 61¢	$49.54	$48.92	-$0.62	57% 1626-1207 (2833)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 61.9¢	$19.92	$19.93	+$0.01	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 61¢	$18.06	$18.21	+$0.15	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$10.31	$10.31	-$0.15	58% 28123-20732 (48855)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$7.39	$8.59	+$1.2	52% 5875-5510 (11385)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$5	$4.94	-$0.06	50% 10533-10389 (20922)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 65¢	$10.34	$1.97	-$0.49	53% 2082-1842 (3924)

sport-intelligenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$42.86

Record

36%

100-174 (274)

RN1

Invested

$1,869.75

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$44.62

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

Cannae

Invested

$1,056.36

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$3.14

Record

53%

15742-13910 (29652)

us391

Invested

$833.99

Value

$833.99

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1646-1580 (3226)

torta.tech

Invested

$444.6

Value

$437.19

PnL

-$7.41

Record

63%

7978-4770 (12748)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$119.93

Value

$119.33

PnL

-$0.6

Record

52%

13563-12405 (25968)

Both legs:

No$84.2760.7¢+$1.08

Yes$35.6640.4¢-$1.68

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$95.65

Value

$96.43

PnL

+$0.78

Record

62%

13614-8455 (22069)

oieshfn345<$100

Invested

$49.54

Value

$48.92

PnL

-$0.62

Record

57%

1626-1207 (2833)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$19.92

Value

$19.93

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$18.06

Value

$18.21

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.31

Value

$10.31

PnL

-$0.15

Record

58%

28123-20732 (48855)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.39

Value

$8.59

PnL

+$1.2

Record

52%

5875-5510 (11385)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

10533-10389 (20922)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$10.34

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$0.49

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.