Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (77%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 24¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 25%
$1.3K
$0.14
Research grade
AvoidOver at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Under 77%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR | Overavg 25¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$0 | 32% 715-1540 (2255) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $55.98 | $57.1 | +$1.12 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $21.84 | $21 | -$0.98 | 58% 28123-20732 (48855) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $15 | $15 | +$0 | 51% 1282-1219 (2501) |
Invested
$1,250
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
715-1540 (2255)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$55.98
Value
$57.1
PnL
+$1.12
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
Invested
$21.84
Value
$21
PnL
-$0.98
Record
58%
28123-20732 (48855)
Invested
$15
Value
$15
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1282-1219 (2501)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.