Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 46¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
$5.5K
$105.54
44¢ → 45.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KC Kch-TempCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $3.4K | $3.6K | +$156.61 | 50% 206-204 (410) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Underavg 56¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$30 | 53% 5495-4840 (10335) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 55.7¢ | $444.24 | $430.39 | -$13.85 | 58% 40728-29460 (70188) |
CA Cannae | Underavg 55.4¢ | $329.65 | $324.15 | -$5.5 | 53% 15728-13898 (29626) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 55.5¢ | $55.9 | $54.38 | -$1.52 | 58% 28094-20712 (48806) |
MA manoamanoCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $48.7 | $48.7 | +$0 | 51% 440-423 (863) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 56.5¢ | $10 | $5.45 | -$0.2 | 47% 2037-2339 (4376) |
Invested
$3,445.39
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$156.61
Record
50%
206-204 (410)
Invested
$1,120
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$30
Record
53%
5495-4840 (10335)
VeryLucky888Invested
$444.24
Value
$430.39
PnL
-$13.85
Record
58%
40728-29460 (70188)
Invested
$329.65
Value
$324.15
PnL
-$5.5
Record
53%
15728-13898 (29626)
Invested
$55.9
Value
$54.38
PnL
-$1.52
Record
58%
28094-20712 (48806)
Invested
$48.7
Value
$48.7
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
440-423 (863)
Invested
$10
Value
$5.45
PnL
-$0.2
Record
47%
2037-2339 (4376)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.