Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (73%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 28¢ · $43 held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$42.74
-$0.17
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 71¢ | $24.85 | $24.85 | +$0 | 57% 13126-10007 (23133) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Overavg 71.6¢ | $9.58 | $9.5 | -$0.02 | 93% 2977-234 (3211) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $2.93 | $2.88 | -$0.05 | 53% 15729-13898 (29627) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $2.9 | $2.8 | -$0.1 | 58% 40740-29467 (70207) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $2.72 | $2.72 | -$0 | 58% 28114-20722 (48836) |
Invested
$24.85
Value
$24.85
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13126-10007 (23133)
Invested
$9.58
Value
$9.5
PnL
-$0.02
Record
93%
2977-234 (3211)
Invested
$2.93
Value
$2.88
PnL
-$0.05
Record
53%
15729-13898 (29627)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$0.1
Record
58%
40740-29467 (70207)
Invested
$2.72
Value
$2.72
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
28114-20722 (48836)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.