Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-10-28?

10 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $40K held · ended Oct 28

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.6K

Combined PnL

$293.35

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 97.1¢

+36% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 20 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$29.5K

Total Shares35,882

Combined PnL+$980.82

Yes10 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares11,684

Combined PnL-$687.48

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
3E 3edmond.dantes	Noavg 67¢	$11.9K	$12.1K	+$355.86	63% 22-13 (35)
oieshfn345	Noavg 77.7¢	$6.8K	$7.8K	+$992.58	57% 1626-1210 (2836)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 79.2¢	$6.7K	$5.7K	$-1.1K	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
└ No leg	Noavg 79.2¢	$3.9K	$4.1K	+$164.81
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.2¢	$2.8K	$1.6K	$-1.2K
RN1	Noavg 77.6¢	$6.1K	$5.5K	-$574.34	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
Nooserac	Noavg 68¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$0	52% 5716-5281 (10997)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Yesavg 32.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$3.86	53% 15742-13910 (29652)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.8¢	$826.3	$806.77	-$19.52
└ No leg	Noavg 65.7¢	$679.77	$703.15	+$23.38
AN Anon455CTR	Yesavg 33¢	$934.54	$906.22	-$42.48	56% 2628-2079 (4707)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 33.7¢	$1.1K	$801.75	-$293.75	51% 1285-1225 (2510)
HRTrading	Noavg 74.6¢	$610.66	$778.18	+$167.52	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 80.5¢	$614.29	$643.54	+$29.25	52% 13567-12407 (25974)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 33¢	$780	$525	-$255	58% 40784-29493 (70277)
ComingBack	Noavg 66¢	$500	$515.15	+$3.79	61% 3850-2418 (6268)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Yesavg 29.1¢	$466.17	$352.72	-$113.46	62% 13616-8455 (22071)
GH ghostorderCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$270	$288	+$18	62% 4271-2636 (6907)
TO torta.tech<$100	Noavg 78¢	$93.6	$97.2	+$3.6	63% 7978-4771 (12749)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 75¢	$45.6	$46.21	+$0.61	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28¢	$20.61	$23.55	+$2.94
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$24.99	$22.66	-$2.33
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.4¢	$41.75	$43.88	+$2.13	58% 18407-13505 (31912)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Noavg 50¢	$4.4	$7	+$2.6	57% 516-394 (910)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 67¢	$4.06	$4.12	-$0.03	58% 28125-20732 (48857)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.6¢	$7.39	$3.94	-$3.45	53% 2082-1842 (3924)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.5¢	$2.75	$2.45	-$0.3	54% 6048-5126 (11174)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$1.46	$2.37	+$0.91	52% 5878-5516 (11394)
0X 0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814CTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.6	-$0.08	46% 196-229 (425)

3edmond.dantes

Invested

$11,919.81

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$355.86

Record

63%

22-13 (35)

oieshfn345

Invested

$6,774.76

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$992.58

Record

57%

1626-1210 (2836)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$6,725.85

Value

$5.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

Both legs:

No$3,907.8579.2¢+$164.81

Yes$2,81831.2¢$-1.2K

RN1

Invested

$6,094.58

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$574.34

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

Nooserac

Invested

$2,062.24

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

5716-5281 (10997)

CannaeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,506.07

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$3.86

Record

53%

15742-13910 (29652)

Both legs:

Yes$826.332.8¢-$19.52

No$679.7765.7¢+$23.38

Anon455CTR

Yes

Invested

$934.54

Value

$906.22

PnL

-$42.48

Record

56%

2628-2079 (4707)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,095.5

Value

$801.75

PnL

-$293.75

Record

51%

1285-1225 (2510)

HRTrading

Invested

$610.66

Value

$778.18

PnL

+$167.52

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$614.29

Value

$643.54

PnL

+$29.25

Record

52%

13567-12407 (25974)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$780

Value

$525

PnL

-$255

Record

58%

40784-29493 (70277)

ComingBack

Invested

$500

Value

$515.15

PnL

+$3.79

Record

61%

3850-2418 (6268)

LilybaeumCTR

Yes

Invested

$466.17

Value

$352.72

PnL

-$113.46

Record

62%

13616-8455 (22071)

ghostorderCTR

Yes

Invested

$270

Value

$288

PnL

+$18

Record

62%

4271-2636 (6907)

torta.tech<$100

Invested

$93.6

Value

$97.2

PnL

+$3.6

Record

63%

7978-4771 (12749)

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$45.6

Value

$46.21

PnL

+$0.61

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

Both legs:

Yes$20.6128¢+$2.94

No$24.9975¢-$2.33

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.75

Value

$43.88

PnL

+$2.13

Record

58%

18407-13505 (31912)

averagejoetraders<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

PnL

+$2.6

Record

57%

516-394 (910)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$4.06

Value

$4.12

PnL

-$0.03

Record

58%

28125-20732 (48857)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.39

Value

$3.94

PnL

-$3.45

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.3

Record

54%

6048-5126 (11174)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.46

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$0.91

Record

52%

5878-5516 (11394)

0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.08

Record

46%

196-229 (425)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 20 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.