Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 70¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$5.2K
$20.87
69¢ → 69.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Noavg 69¢ | $4.4K | $4.4K | +$31.97 | 51% 1645-1580 (3225) |
CA CannaeCTR | Yesavg 31¢ | $591.71 | $582.16 | -$9.54 | 53% 15728-13898 (29626) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Yesavg 31¢ | $106.64 | $104.92 | -$1.72 | 58% 28094-20712 (48806) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $20.7 | $20.85 | +$0.15 | 47% 2037-2339 (4376) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $2.23 | $2.23 | +$0.02 | 53% 5495-4840 (10335) |
us391Invested
$4,412.01
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$31.97
Record
51%
1645-1580 (3225)
Invested
$591.71
Value
$582.16
PnL
-$9.54
Record
53%
15728-13898 (29626)
Invested
$106.64
Value
$104.92
PnL
-$1.72
Record
58%
28094-20712 (48806)
Invested
$20.7
Value
$20.85
PnL
+$0.15
Record
47%
2037-2339 (4376)
Invested
$2.23
Value
$2.23
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
5495-4840 (10335)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.