Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Udinese Calcio: Both Teams to Score
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 43¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$111.72
52.5¢ → 42.5¢
-19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeCTR | Yesavg 52.3¢ | $855.24 | $906.49 | +$51.25 | 53% 15742-13910 (29652) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Noavg 45.2¢ | $325.1 | $388.8 | +$63.7 | 51% 1282-1219 (2501) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $160.79 | $162.38 | -$0.41 | 56% 6915-5529 (12444) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54¢ | $108 | $109 | -$1 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 45¢ | $52.79 | $53.38 | +$0.59 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 46.8¢ | $123.2 | $120.98 | -$3.53 | 58% 28123-20732 (48855) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $75.63 | $76.33 | +$0.7 | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $24.96 | $24.24 | -$0.72 | 50% 10533-10389 (20922) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $6.76 | $7.02 | +$0.32 | 53% 2082-1842 (3924) |
Invested
$855.24
Value
$906.49
PnL
+$51.25
Record
53%
15742-13910 (29652)
Invested
$325.1
Value
$388.8
PnL
+$63.7
Record
51%
1282-1219 (2501)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$160.79
Value
$162.38
PnL
-$0.41
Record
56%
6915-5529 (12444)
Both legs:
Invested
$123.2
Value
$120.98
PnL
-$3.53
Record
58%
28123-20732 (48855)
Invested
$75.63
Value
$76.33
PnL
+$0.7
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
Invested
$24.96
Value
$24.24
PnL
-$0.72
Record
50%
10533-10389 (20922)
Invested
$6.76
Value
$7.02
PnL
+$0.32
Record
53%
2082-1842 (3924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.