AC Monza vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 6.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 75¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 38%
$6.9K
-$277.5
96.5¢ → 75.3¢
-22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 96.6¢ | $6.4K | $6.1K | -$328.31 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
FR freeman123 | Underavg 94.4¢ | $540 | $539.21 | -$0.79 | 82% 539-121 (660) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 2.9¢ | $129.76 | $176 | +$46.24 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 3.4¢ | $42.66 | $45.85 | +$3.19 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 5.5¢ | $20.55 | $21.46 | +$0.91 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 96.1¢ | $5.68 | $5.7 | +$0.02 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 3.3¢ | $0.73 | $2.03 | +$1.29 | 57% 13182-10033 (23215) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 9.5¢ | $1.9 | $1.84 | -$0.06 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
Invested
$6,449.24
Value
$6.1K
PnL
-$328.31
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$540
Value
$539.21
PnL
-$0.79
Record
82%
539-121 (660)
RN1CTRInvested
$129.76
Value
$176
PnL
+$46.24
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$42.66
Value
$45.85
PnL
+$3.19
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$20.55
Value
$21.46
PnL
+$0.91
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.68
Value
$5.7
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$2.03
PnL
+$1.29
Record
57%
13182-10033 (23215)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$0.06
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.