AC Monza vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 82¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$100.14

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 81.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,429

Combined PnL-$0.32

Over1 trader

Total Value$442.06

Total Shares2,852

Combined PnL-$99.82

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 82.2¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$37.35	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ Under leg	Underavg 82.2¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$156.07
└ Over leg	Overavg 19¢	$490	$683.42	+$193.42
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 81.6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$2.75	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
RN1CTR	Overavg 19¢	$541.88	$442.06	-$99.82	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
HRTrading	Underavg 81.9¢	$336.78	$335.94	-$0.84	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 75.7¢	$130.73	$132.76	+$2.04	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 81¢	$28.35	$29.58	+$1.22	57% 13182-10033 (23215)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,961.33

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$37.35

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

Under$1,471.3382.2¢-$156.07

Over$49019¢+$193.42

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,537.45

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$2.75

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$541.88

Value

$442.06

PnL

-$99.82

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$336.78

Value

$335.94

PnL

-$0.84

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$130.73

Value

$132.76

PnL

+$2.04

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$28.35

Value

$29.58

PnL

+$1.22

Record

57%

13182-10033 (23215)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.