AC Monza vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 62¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$43.71

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 62¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,189

Combined PnL+$102.24

Over3 traders

Total Value$673.1

Total Shares1,786

Combined PnL-$58.53

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 62.4¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$220.35	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ Under leg	Underavg 62.4¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$359.76
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.5¢	$564.41	$703.82	+$139.41
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 57.4¢	$906.84	$962.07	+$55.24	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
RI RichieRicherCTR	Overavg 39.6¢	$525.97	$465.2	-$60.77	53% 696-625 (1321)
RN1	Underavg 61¢	$418.94	$434.28	+$15.34	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
0xheavy888	Underavg 63¢	$378	$390	+$12	56% 6917-5536 (12453)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 62.8¢	$519.77	$343.38	+$18.6	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
SK SkurwysynCTR	Overavg 45¢	$204.54	$206.81	+$2.27	49% 257-269 (526)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 64¢	$44.26	$45.2	+$1.11	58% 28127-20735 (48862)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 66¢	$5.05	$5	-$0.05	47% 2067-2357 (4424)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$1.13	$1.1	-$0.03	56% 2631-2084 (4715)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,307.68

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$220.35

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

Under$1,743.2762.4¢-$359.76

Over$564.4140.5¢+$139.41

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$906.84

Value

$962.07

PnL

+$55.24

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

RichieRicherCTR

Over

Invested

$525.97

Value

$465.2

PnL

-$60.77

Record

53%

696-625 (1321)

RN1

Under

Invested

$418.94

Value

$434.28

PnL

+$15.34

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$378

Value

$390

PnL

+$12

Record

56%

6917-5536 (12453)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$519.77

Value

$343.38

PnL

+$18.6

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

SkurwysynCTR

Over

Invested

$204.54

Value

$206.81

PnL

+$2.27

Record

49%

257-269 (526)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$44.26

Value

$45.2

PnL

+$1.11

Record

58%

28127-20735 (48862)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$5.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

2067-2357 (4424)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.03

Record

56%

2631-2084 (4715)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.