AC Monza vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 17%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$14.1
Research grade
NeutralOver at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YO yohan75 | Overavg 58¢ | $870 | $862.5 | -$7.5 | 53% 266-236 (502) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $433.41 | $433.41 | +$0 | 53% 5481-4825 (10306) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $220 | $220 | -$7.5 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 42¢ | $100.97 | $102.17 | +$1.2 | 53% 15687-13866 (29553) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Underavg 42.9¢ | $76.99 | $77.34 | -$0.16 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 42.9¢ | $48.44 | $48.03 | -$0.41 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 56¢ | $28.55 | $29.32 | +$0.25 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 42.9¢ | $27.56 | $27.3 | -$0.26 | 57% 12963-9878 (22841) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $3.41 | $3.41 | -$0.04 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
Invested
$870
Value
$862.5
PnL
-$7.5
Record
53%
266-236 (502)
Invested
$433.41
Value
$433.41
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5481-4825 (10306)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$220
Value
$220
PnL
-$7.5
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
Invested
$100.97
Value
$102.17
PnL
+$1.2
Record
53%
15687-13866 (29553)
Invested
$76.99
Value
$77.34
PnL
-$0.16
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
Both legs:
Invested
$27.56
Value
$27.3
PnL
-$0.26
Record
57%
12963-9878 (22841)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.41
Value
$3.41
PnL
-$0.04
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.