AC Monza vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (70%) · Over at 100¢ · $20K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 70%

Total Value

$20.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$19.9K

Total Shares20,711

Combined PnL+$462.62

Under3 traders

Total Value$437.74

Total Shares23,620

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Over — 70%Under — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$12.2K	$12.2K	+$6.12	99% 12681-184 (12865)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 80.6¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$331.92	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
RN1	Overavg 81¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$29.62	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 86.4¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$128.41	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Overavg 86.3¢	$616.97	$647.17	+$30.19	53% 2082-1842 (3924)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 17.1¢	$351.09	$411.56	+$60.47	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
AN Anon455<$100	Overavg 93¢	$67.62	$63.26	-$4.36	56% 2631-2084 (4715)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$14.67	$15.44	+$1.16	58% 28127-20735 (48862)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 8.8¢	$1.9K	$10.74	$-1.9K	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Overavg 93¢	$9.3	$9.25	-$0.05	51% 1291-1227 (2518)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$12,237.03

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$6.12

Record

99%

12681-184 (12865)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,550.24

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$331.92

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

RN1

Over

Invested

$2,479.98

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$29.62

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$1,455.4

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$128.41

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Over

Invested

$616.97

Value

$647.17

PnL

+$30.19

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$351.09

Value

$411.56

PnL

+$60.47

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

Anon455<$100

Over

Invested

$67.62

Value

$63.26

PnL

-$4.36

Record

56%

2631-2084 (4715)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.67

Value

$15.44

PnL

+$1.16

Record

58%

28127-20735 (48862)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$1,885.5

Value

$10.74

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Over

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.25

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1291-1227 (2518)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.