Spread: SSC Napoli (-3.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold AC Monza (33%) · AC Monza at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
AC Monza
6
AC Monza 33%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
$90.85
94¢ → 68.3¢
-27% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAC Monza at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | AC Monzaavg 94.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$8.97 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | SSC Napoliavg 9.7¢ | $821.44 | $567.83 | -$442.56 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
| └ SSC Napoli leg | SSC Napoliavg 9.7¢ | $554.95 | $300.64 | -$443.27 | |
| └ AC Monza leg | AC Monzaavg 94.5¢ | $266.49 | $267.2 | +$0.7 | |
FO foooool | AC Monzaavg 92.3¢ | $341.58 | $314.51 | -$27.07 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
HI hi774cCTR | SSC Napoliavg 5.5¢ | $58.49 | $159.52 | +$101.03 | 52% 4656-4366 (9022) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | SSC Napoliavg 7.7¢ | $6.93 | $13.5 | +$6.57 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | SSC Napoliavg 5.5¢ | $1.61 | $2.32 | +$0.89 | 57% 13182-10033 (23215) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | SSC Napoliavg 5.9¢ | $0.3 | $0.75 | +$0.46 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
RN1Invested
$1,293.85
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$8.97
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$821.44
Value
$567.83
PnL
-$442.56
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
Both legs:
Invested
$341.58
Value
$314.51
PnL
-$27.07
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$58.49
Value
$159.52
PnL
+$101.03
Record
52%
4656-4366 (9022)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$13.5
PnL
+$6.57
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$1.61
Value
$2.32
PnL
+$0.89
Record
57%
13182-10033 (23215)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.75
PnL
+$0.46
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.