Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold AC Monza (50%) · AC Monza at 69¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

SSC Napoli32¢AC Monza68¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

AC Monza

Consensus Traders

AC Monza 50%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$77.23

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 68.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralAC Monza at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

AC Monza

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

SSC Napoli32%

AC Monza69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

AC Monza2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,589

Combined PnL+$77.68

SSC Napoli2 traders

Total Value$23.17

Total Shares77

Combined PnL-$0.45

AC Monza — 50%SSC Napoli — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
32 32555	AC Monzaavg 68¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$76.14	52% 82-77 (159)
CA Cannae<$100	AC Monzaavg 68¢	$34.98	$36.52	+$1.54	53% 15742-13910 (29652)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	SSC Napoliavg 31¢	$13.95	$13.05	-$0.9	50% 6813-6827 (13640)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	SSC Napoliavg 30.1¢	$9.66	$10.12	+$0.45	57% 13143-10017 (23160)

32555

AC Monza

Invested

$1,725.76

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$76.14

Record

52%

82-77 (159)

Cannae<$100

AC Monza

Invested

$34.98

Value

$36.52

PnL

+$1.54

Record

53%

15742-13910 (29652)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

SSC Napoli

Invested

$13.95

Value

$13.05

PnL

-$0.9

Record

50%

6813-6827 (13640)

ghorrockCTR<$100

SSC Napoli

Invested

$9.66

Value

$10.12

PnL

+$0.45

Record

57%

13143-10017 (23160)

Research grade

NeutralAC Monza at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

AC Monza

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that AC Monza wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.