Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-10-28?
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 25%
$1.8K
$42.1
52.9¢ → 55.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 52.9¢ | $816.84 | $826.66 | +$9.82 | 49% 18462-18884 (37346) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 44¢ | $1.2K | $697.5 | +$15.52 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 44¢ | $132.02 | $139.52 | +$7.5 | 53% 15687-13866 (29553) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $90.34 | $95.48 | +$5.13 | 50% 24171-23783 (47954) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $50.6 | $53.48 | +$2.88 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $15.82 | $16.72 | +$0.9 | 57% 12963-9878 (22841) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.7¢ | $11.12 | $11.56 | +$0.44 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $3.03 | $2.94 | -$0.08 | 53% 2040-1807 (3847) |
Invested
$816.84
Value
$826.66
PnL
+$9.82
Record
49%
18462-18884 (37346)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,176.65
Value
$697.5
PnL
+$15.52
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
Invested
$132.02
Value
$139.52
PnL
+$7.5
Record
53%
15687-13866 (29553)
Invested
$90.34
Value
$95.48
PnL
+$5.13
Record
50%
24171-23783 (47954)
Invested
$50.6
Value
$53.48
PnL
+$2.88
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
Invested
$15.82
Value
$16.72
PnL
+$0.9
Record
57%
12963-9878 (22841)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$11.12
Value
$11.56
PnL
+$0.44
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
Invested
$3.03
Value
$2.94
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
2040-1807 (3847)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.