Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: AC Monza 2 - 4 SSC Napoli?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 2.6¢ · $390 held · ended Oct 28

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$390.48

Combined PnL

$369.58

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$387.23

Total Shares795

Combined PnL+$372.59

No1 trader

Total Value$3.25

Total Shares6

Combined PnL-$3.01

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2CTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$8.1	$220.5	+$212.4	50% 6813-6827 (13640)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$6.12	$166.6	+$160.48	50% 5776-5883 (11659)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$6.27	$3.25	-$3.01	57% 13182-10033 (23215)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.4¢	$0.42	$0.13	-$0.29	50% 32798-32351 (65149)

Forecastication2CTR

Yes

Invested

$8.1

Value

$220.5

PnL

+$212.4

Record

50%

6813-6827 (13640)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$6.12

Value

$166.6

PnL

+$160.48

Record

50%

5776-5883 (11659)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.27

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$3.01

Record

57%

13182-10033 (23215)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.29

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.8%

2.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2550.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

2650.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.