Exact Score: AC Monza 0 - 2 SSC Napoli?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $169 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$168.57
-$63.83
88¢ → 100¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 89¢ | $154.73 | $84.12 | -$61.15 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $51.62 | $51.99 | +$0.37 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $34.43 | $26.64 | -$7.79 | 57% 13182-10033 (23215) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $1.08 | $5.82 | +$4.74 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$154.73
Value
$84.12
PnL
-$61.15
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
RN1<$100Invested
$51.62
Value
$51.99
PnL
+$0.37
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$34.43
Value
$26.64
PnL
-$7.79
Record
57%
13182-10033 (23215)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$5.82
PnL
+$4.74
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.