AC Monza vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 9.5 Total Corners
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$1.5K
-$39.17
48.9¢ → 51¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 49.2¢ | $659.76 | $609.85 | -$49.91 | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $458.07 | $482.47 | +$24.41 | 50% 32772-32330 (65102) |
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186CTR | Underavg 51¢ | $249.97 | $240.16 | -$9.8 | 52% 135-123 (258) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 47.1¢ | $91.83 | $88.75 | -$3.08 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 49.6¢ | $60.56 | $59.78 | -$0.78 | 50% 6813-6827 (13640) |
Invested
$659.76
Value
$609.85
PnL
-$49.91
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
Invested
$458.07
Value
$482.47
PnL
+$24.41
Record
50%
32772-32330 (65102)
Invested
$249.97
Value
$240.16
PnL
-$9.8
Record
52%
135-123 (258)
Invested
$91.83
Value
$88.75
PnL
-$3.08
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
Invested
$60.56
Value
$59.78
PnL
-$0.78
Record
50%
6813-6827 (13640)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.