Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
AC Monza vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to Score
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 42¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
1 arb excluded
$4.3K
$42.37
41.3¢ → 41.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 40.9¢ | $3.2K | $3.1K | -$110.46 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.9¢ | $2.6K | $2.4K | -$148.98 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 58¢ | $638.29 | $676.81 | +$38.52 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 41.6¢ | $664.95 | $673.62 | +$22.37 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Noavg 41¢ | $328 | $344 | +$16 | 56% 6917-5536 (12453) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 41¢ | $110.05 | $115.34 | +$5.3 | 53% 15742-13912 (29654) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.2¢ | $17.39 | $14.78 | -$2.61 | 57% 13182-10033 (23215) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $9.91 | $11.01 | +$1.1 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Yesavg 56.7¢ | $7.83 | $7.87 | +$0.04 | 53% 2082-1842 (3924) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $2.08 | $2.24 | +$0.16 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $0.61 | $0.63 | +$0.02 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
Invested
$3,196.5
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$110.46
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$664.95
Value
$673.62
PnL
+$22.37
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$328
Value
$344
PnL
+$16
Record
56%
6917-5536 (12453)
Invested
$110.05
Value
$115.34
PnL
+$5.3
Record
53%
15742-13912 (29654)
Invested
$17.39
Value
$14.78
PnL
-$2.61
Record
57%
13182-10033 (23215)
Invested
$9.91
Value
$11.01
PnL
+$1.1
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
Invested
$7.83
Value
$7.87
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
2082-1842 (3924)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.08
Value
$2.24
PnL
+$0.16
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$0.61
Value
$0.63
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.