AC Monza vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 0.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 96¢ · $340 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
$340.41
$13.3
66.3¢ → 96.2¢
+45% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Overavg 50¢ | $600 | $200 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.7¢ | $4.96 | $64.59 | +$59.63 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 95¢ | $95 | $51.5 | -$43.5 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 3.4¢ | $9.86 | $8.59 | +$0.84 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 96.3¢ | $12.52 | $6.7 | -$5.82 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.8¢ | $6.67 | $6.51 | -$0.16 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $0.21 | $2.53 | +$2.32 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
Invested
$600
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$4.96
Value
$64.59
PnL
+$59.63
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$95
Value
$51.5
PnL
-$43.5
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$9.86
Value
$8.59
PnL
+$0.84
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$12.52
Value
$6.7
PnL
-$5.82
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$6.67
Value
$6.51
PnL
-$0.16
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$2.32
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.