AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 7.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$71.07
93.8¢ → 97.9¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 94.6¢ | $570.62 | $415.36 | -$155.26 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 7.9¢ | $646.26 | $412.97 | -$233.29 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 7.9¢ | $530.37 | $288.87 | -$241.5 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 89.4¢ | $115.89 | $124.1 | +$8.21 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 4.5¢ | $31.44 | $113.88 | +$82.44 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 90.5¢ | $76.93 | $78.54 | +$1.61 | 50% 33488-33047 (66535) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 89.4¢ | $9.22 | $9.26 | +$0.04 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 3.5¢ | $0.36 | $0.46 | +$0.1 | 59% 10257-7240 (17497) |
Invested
$570.62
Value
$415.36
PnL
-$155.26
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$646.26
Value
$412.97
PnL
-$233.29
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
Both legs:
Invested
$31.44
Value
$113.88
PnL
+$82.44
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
Invested
$76.93
Value
$78.54
PnL
+$1.61
Record
50%
33488-33047 (66535)
Invested
$9.22
Value
$9.26
PnL
+$0.04
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.36
Value
$0.46
PnL
+$0.1
Record
59%
10257-7240 (17497)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.