AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 6.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 94¢ · $47K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 56%
$47.1K
$4.6K
73.3¢ → 94.3¢
+29% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 73.5¢ | $19.7K | $24.5K | +$4.8K | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
WO wollaoCTR | Overavg 27.8¢ | $11.6K | $11.2K | -$462.38 | 51% 18-17 (35) |
 RN1 | Underavg 72.6¢ | $9.4K | $9.4K | +$27.35 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 73.1¢ | $665.21 | $720.27 | +$55.05 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 16.6¢ | $397.8 | $519.77 | +$121.97 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
 HRTrading | Underavg 72.3¢ | $337.96 | $430.78 | +$92.82 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
FO foooool | Underavg 73.1¢ | $270.16 | $288.07 | +$17.91 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Overavg 25.3¢ | $142.26 | $87.22 | -$55.04 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $22.35 | $13.29 | +$2.98 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
Invested
$19,713.87
Value
$24.5K
PnL
+$4.8K
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$11,629.77
Value
$11.2K
PnL
-$462.38
Record
51%
18-17 (35)
RN1Invested
$9,371.2
Value
$9.4K
PnL
+$27.35
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
Invested
$665.21
Value
$720.27
PnL
+$55.05
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
Invested
$397.8
Value
$519.77
PnL
+$121.97
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
HRTradingInvested
$337.96
Value
$430.78
PnL
+$92.82
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$270.16
Value
$288.07
PnL
+$17.91
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
Invested
$142.26
Value
$87.22
PnL
-$55.04
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$22.35
Value
$13.29
PnL
+$2.98
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.