AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 5.5

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (53%) · Under at 77¢ · $25K held · ended Oct 31

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.8K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 76.5¢

+44% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$24.1K

Total Shares29,545

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Over7 traders

Total Value$443.71

Total Shares1,002

Combined PnL+$3.23

Under — 53%Over — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 51.1¢	$10.9K	$11.2K	+$294.52	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 59.6¢	$8.6K	$9.7K	+$1.1K	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 47¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$97.72	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 43.8¢	$220.81	$239.62	+$18.81	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.3¢	$106.15	$157.09	+$50.94
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.8¢	$114.66	$82.53	-$32.13
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 51.4¢	$211.53	$214.18	+$2.64	55% 2937-2368 (5305)
MY myxiCTR	Overavg 38¢	$190	$192.5	+$2.5	68% 369-177 (546)
FO foooool	Underavg 47.9¢	$104.7	$126.52	+$21.82	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 92¢	$37.72	$35.88	-$1.84	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$18.8	$18.1	-$0.71	55% 8315-6706 (15021)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 83.1¢	$69.8	$14.91	-$27.58	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Underavg 46¢	$9.2	$13.6	+$4.4	47% 4586-5092 (9678)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Underavg 52¢	$10.4	$10.3	-$0.1	51% 1460-1410 (2870)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$9.75	$9.85	+$0.1	53% 2197-1937 (4134)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$5.5	$4.41	-$1.09	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$3.2	$3.08	-$0.12	60% 3370-2270 (5640)
AR ARocky33CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$1.7	$1.6	-$0.1	76% 4073-1287 (5360)

RN1

Under

Invested

$10,894.01

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$294.52

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$8,555.08

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$3,156.78

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$97.72

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$220.81

Value

$239.62

PnL

+$18.81

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Both legs:

Under$106.1546.3¢+$50.94

Over$114.6643.8¢-$32.13

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$211.53

Value

$214.18

PnL

+$2.64

Record

55%

2937-2368 (5305)

myxiCTR

Over

Invested

$190

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

68%

369-177 (546)

foooool

Under

Invested

$104.7

Value

$126.52

PnL

+$21.82

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$37.72

Value

$35.88

PnL

-$1.84

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.8

Value

$18.1

PnL

-$0.71

Record

55%

8315-6706 (15021)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$69.8

Value

$14.91

PnL

-$27.58

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Under

Invested

$9.2

Value

$13.6

PnL

+$4.4

Record

47%

4586-5092 (9678)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Under

Invested

$10.4

Value

$10.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

1460-1410 (2870)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.75

Value

$9.85

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

2197-1937 (4134)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.5

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$1.09

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

shiifooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$0.12

Record

60%

3370-2270 (5640)

ARocky33CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.1

Record

76%

4073-1287 (5360)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.