Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 4.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 42¢ · $22K held · ended Oct 31

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.7K

Combined PnL

-$53.43

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 41.5¢

-27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares21,457

Combined PnL$-3.9K

Over6 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares11,348

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Under — 54%Over — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Underavg 58.7¢	$11.1K	$7.7K	$-3.4K	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 27¢	$1.5K	$5.3K	+$3.8K	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 76.5¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$158.27	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
└ Over leg	Overavg 76.5¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$89.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 18¢	$523.79	$771.81	+$248.02
MY myxi	Overavg 74¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$20	68% 369-177 (546)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 53¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$497.2	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
TO torta.techCTR	Underavg 50¢	$533	$527.67	-$5.33	63% 8137-4876 (13013)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 40.5¢	$172.34	$275.09	+$102.75	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.5¢	$109.26	$195.55	+$86.29
└ Under leg	Underavg 21.8¢	$63.08	$79.53	+$16.46
AN Anon455	Overavg 39.9¢	$141.71	$261.25	+$119.53	55% 2937-2368 (5305)
MR MrBently	Overavg 50¢	$205	$209.1	+$4.1	53% 545-487 (1032)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 83¢	$37.35	$38.25	+$0.9	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 62¢	$20.46	$19.97	-$0.5	55% 8315-6706 (15021)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 24.9¢	$9.52	$15.11	+$5.59	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 29.4¢	$9.34	$11.29	+$1.94	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 84¢	$10.67	$10.73	+$0.06	53% 2197-1937 (4134)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$0.88	$0.91	+$0.03	57% 13860-10628 (24488)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$11,102.13

Value

$7.7K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$1,503.53

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,833.4

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$158.27

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

Both legs:

Over$2,309.6176.5¢-$89.75

Under$523.7918¢+$248.02

myxi

Over

Invested

$2,959.99

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$20

Record

68%

369-177 (546)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$1,951.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$497.2

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

torta.techCTR

Under

Invested

$533

Value

$527.67

PnL

-$5.33

Record

63%

8137-4876 (13013)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$172.34

Value

$275.09

PnL

+$102.75

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

Both legs:

Over$109.2640.5¢+$86.29

Under$63.0821.8¢+$16.46

Anon455

Over

Invested

$141.71

Value

$261.25

PnL

+$119.53

Record

55%

2937-2368 (5305)

MrBently

Over

Invested

$205

Value

$209.1

PnL

+$4.1

Record

53%

545-487 (1032)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.35

Value

$38.25

PnL

+$0.9

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$20.46

Value

$19.97

PnL

-$0.5

Record

55%

8315-6706 (15021)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.52

Value

$15.11

PnL

+$5.59

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.34

Value

$11.29

PnL

+$1.94

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$10.67

Value

$10.73

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

2197-1937 (4134)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.03

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.