Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $682 held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$681.81

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Smart Money Entry

30.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$215.29

Total Shares12,743

Combined PnL$-3.6K

Over2 traders

Total Value$34.98

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$22.86

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 69.8¢	$488.11	$431.53	-$232.58	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
└ Over leg	Overavg 31.5¢	$126	$294	-$8
└ Under leg	Underavg 69.8¢	$362.11	$137.54	-$224.58
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR	Underavg 49¢	$154.96	$169.2	+$14.23	55% 1747-1441 (3188)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 31¢	$9.3	$29.99	+$20.69	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$21.27	$20.01	-$1.26	55% 2937-2368 (5305)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$11.25	$19.13	+$7.88	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 30¢	$1.5	$5	+$2.18	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 35.7¢	$3.5K	$4.88	$-3.5K	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
FO fooooolCTR	Underavg 7.3¢	$149.88	$1.03	-$148.85	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$0.09	$0.99	+$0.9	47% 4586-5092 (9678)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 15.2¢	$15.78	$0.05	-$15.73	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$488.11

Value

$431.53

PnL

-$232.58

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

Both legs:

Over$12631.5¢-$8

Under$362.1169.8¢-$224.58

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR

Under

Invested

$154.96

Value

$169.2

PnL

+$14.23

Record

55%

1747-1441 (3188)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$9.3

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$20.69

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.27

Value

$20.01

PnL

-$1.26

Record

55%

2937-2368 (5305)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.25

Value

$19.13

PnL

+$7.88

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$1.5

Value

PnL

+$2.18

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$3,482.91

Value

$4.88

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

fooooolCTR

Under

Invested

$149.88

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$148.85

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.99

PnL

+$0.9

Record

47%

4586-5092 (9678)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.78

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$15.73

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.