AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 20%
$1.6K
-$2.07
Research grade
NeutralOver at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nooserac | Overavg 56¢ | $847.7 | $855.27 | +$7.57 | 52% 5777-5366 (11143) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $449.65 | $444.54 | -$5.11 | 53% 15955-14130 (30085) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 44.1¢ | $281.04 | $277.08 | -$3.96 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $45.76 | $45.24 | -$0.52 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.2 | -$0.05 | 48% 2393-2622 (5015) |
NooseracInvested
$847.7
Value
$855.27
PnL
+$7.57
Record
52%
5777-5366 (11143)
Invested
$449.65
Value
$444.54
PnL
-$5.11
Record
53%
15955-14130 (30085)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$281.04
Value
$277.08
PnL
-$3.96
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
Invested
$45.76
Value
$45.24
PnL
-$0.52
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$0.05
Record
48%
2393-2622 (5015)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.