AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: FC Internazionale Milano O/U 1.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 54¢ · $712 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 50%
3 arb excluded
$712.26
$9.5
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $356.17 | $374.72 | +$18.56 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 43¢ | $214.99 | $269.99 | +$55 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 62¢ | $141.18 | $104.74 | -$36.44 | |
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100 | Underavg 47.6¢ | $174.75 | $100.1 | -$74.65 | 50% 19212-19597 (38809) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47.6¢ | $158.49 | $74.9 | -$83.59 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50¢ | $16.26 | $25.2 | +$8.94 | |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $86.71 | $95 | +$8.29 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 28.8¢ | $42.1 | $59.13 | +$17.03 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 74¢ | $44.61 | $35.87 | -$8.74 | |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $49.5 | $57 | +$7.5 | 59% 10257-7240 (17497) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Overavg 51.9¢ | $59.27 | $56.53 | -$2.74 | 53% 2197-1937 (4134) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 26¢ | $15.67 | $20.5 | +$4.82 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $8.48 | $8.39 | -$0.08 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
Invested
$356.17
Value
$374.72
PnL
+$18.56
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Both legs:
Invested
$174.75
Value
$100.1
PnL
-$74.65
Record
50%
19212-19597 (38809)
Both legs:
Invested
$86.71
Value
$95
PnL
+$8.29
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
Both legs:
poshposh<$100Invested
$49.5
Value
$57
PnL
+$7.5
Record
59%
10257-7240 (17497)
Invested
$59.27
Value
$56.53
PnL
-$2.74
Record
53%
2197-1937 (4134)
Invested
$15.67
Value
$20.5
PnL
+$4.82
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
Invested
$8.48
Value
$8.39
PnL
-$0.08
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.